Risk Propagation Model and Simulation of an Assembled Building Supply Chain Network

In recent years, the prefabricated building supply chain has received strong support from government and developed rapidly, but there are various risks in operation process. this paper, on basis of considering asymptomatic infections relapse, paper establishes a risk transmission model that considers recurrent Susceptible–Exposed–Asymptomatic–Infectious–Recovered (abbr. SEAIR) model, systematically analyses chain, calculates balance point to conclude can exist for long time. By drawing causal circuit diagram, relationship between influencing factors process is found, establishing stock flow map explore law propagation. The simulation results using Vensim PLE software show five infection rate, financial support, policy supervision, immunity loss ratio have an important impact number risk-unknown enterprises, risk-latent rehabilitation enterprises transmission, relevant countermeasures deal with proposed. Theoretically, broadens ideas improving infectious disease models. From management view, it reveals how enables improve their ability through propagation providing reference helping manage faced by chain.